智能星球

有关人类与科技的全面结合给世界带来改变的一些看法

智能星球是有关人类与科技的全面结合给世界带来改变的一些看法。是指各种系统和处理流程在生活中所起的作用，包括对物品的设计、生成、制造、买卖；服务任务的完成；所有事物的移动，包括人类、货币、石油、水资源和电子；及至数十亿人要工作，自我管理和生活。

意义

* 有史以来，几乎所有事物都将被赋予数字化功能并相互关联。 * 到2010年，人类将人均拥有十亿个晶体管。每一个晶体管的成本为一分钱的千万分之一。人类科技将被植入数以十亿记的装置当中，包括车辆、器械、道路，等等。

* 到2011 年，预计二十亿人将以前所未有的方式通过不同的装置连入网络。

* 大规模超强计算机和计算“云”环境将以经济适用的方式用于处理，成型、预测和分析堆积如山的数据。

举例

根据已经公布的各种报告, 全世界由于电网效率过低而造成的电能损失大约在百分之四十至百分之七十的范围内。目前，美国、丹麦、澳大利亚和意大利的公用机构正在构建数字式网格用以实时监测能源系统。这使得他们可以在断电后加快恢复供电，并以更加智能化的方法配给电能。数字化更能够把传统能源和新型能源相结合，综合管理所有形式的能源。

举例：在美国，每年消耗在道路交通拥堵上的时间和燃油折合大约780亿美元。车辆在洛杉矶一个小型商业区每年寻找停车位所累积的里程可以环绕世界38次，还要燃烧47,000加仑汽油，产生730吨二氧化碳。与此相反，斯德哥尔摩新建的智能计费系统减少了百分之二十二的车流量，降低了百分之十二至百分之四十的废气排放，并日均增加了40,000人使用公共交通系统。

机遇

智能机场、智能银行、智能道路、智能城市―― 低成本的技术已经随处可见，随时可用。因此，这个有关智能化的清单可以无限制地罗列下去。

当整个科技业受到经济低迷困扰之时，“大师”IBM又要“指点江山”了。在11月28日IT经理世界杂志举办的经理世界年会上，IBM大中华区总裁钱大群首次披露了即将在全球推出全新战略理念——智能星球。据说，为了这个新战略，IBM已经研究、准备近两年的时间，具体在中国怎样以更中国化的理念进行包装，IBM内部还在探讨中。

每当产业走到一个关键时刻，IBM就会以引领者的角色来“指点江山”——从95年提出的“e-business”，到2002年的“电子商务随需应变”，到现在的“智慧星球”。仔细想想，这几个战略都是一脉相承的，也都是基于IBM自身需要和产业背景所产生的。

1995年，在很多人还不知道电子商务为何物时，IBM就预先提出“e-business”战略理念，此后网络时代的兴起，企业开始兴建网站，购买IT基础设备。这推动了IT基础设施走入普及阶段。

2002年，互联网泡沫破灭后，IT走下神坛，引发了业界对“IT不再重要”的争论。此时，IBM又适时地推出了“e-business on demand”——重点在“on demand”。当客户开始捂着钱包说：环境不好，我不买IT设施了！而IBM则巧妙地说：没关系，我可以根据您的需求提供服务，你可以像用水用电一样需要多少买多少。

有意思的是，前两个理念，还包括几十年前的大型机战略，被IBM称为三次“登月计划”，而这次IBM的新理念成为“智慧星球”——不是“月”就是“星”，咋一听起来，很大很空，甚至，刚开始时，IBM内部人也不一定很懂。但是，事实上，IBM每次理念的提出和随之“传教”式的推广，都成为了产业的风向标，引领了整个IT业跟随IBM的脚步而调整和前行。

如果说，前两个战略理念——“电子商务”和“电子商务随需应变”，IBM的着眼点是企业，而现在“智慧星球”的着眼点更广——也许IBM发现，企业信息化、电子商务的实现，光靠自己企业自身无法实现，这需要不仅包括企业自身，还包括政府、社区等整个社会、整个生态链共同来实现。就像网上购物，美国很容易实现，是因为用配套的环境支持。而我国因为支付问题、信用等问题，难以普及——这已经不是技术问题。所以，就像钱大群在演讲中所谈到的要实现“智能星球”的挑战比以前实施“电子商务”和“电子商务随需应变”都要大很多，“不是一个企业可以做到的，要彼此合作，比如，你要解决一个水污染问题的时候，水污染的上游说我做了，下游说我不管，或者下游做了上游不管都没有办法，只有在一起共同协作才能解决这个问题。”

IBM最精明和老到之处，每次战略理念的推出，都很高屋建瓴，出发点都是别人，而落脚点却是自己——IBM不仅可以提供咨询（点子），还可以提供整套的解决方案。这实际上是作为产业引领者的IBM做生意的方式。在把金融行业的钱赚得差不多以后，IBM近几年开始把触角伸到电信、医疗、交通、制造等各行各业，而要打动像医疗、交通等国家基础设施部门的“钱袋”，情况更为复杂，需要的是系统工程。IBM适时提出了这个新理念——智能星球，正是基于这样的背景。

如果说，IBM以前的理念主要是“忽悠”企业，现在“智慧星球”的提出则更重要的是与政府部门合作。此时，国家4万亿投资基础设施的计划推出之时，IBM推出的“智能星球”战略，强调“实体基础设施和信息基础设施不应该分开建设，而应该是统一的智能基础设施”也正是IBM此理念的精髓之处。在现在经济危机背景下，IBM新战略的卖点则是降低监管风险、提升效益，更加节能、更加绿色等，这几点，钱大群演讲中阐述的“智能星球”的例子都有提及——这正是急政府之所急、想政府之所想。

智慧的地球

智慧的地球。

It is a pleasure and an honor to be here today in this distinguished assembly, and at this extraordinary moment: a major political transition in the United States, the global economy in flux, our financial markets restructuring themselves—and an acutely felt need for leadership.

Our political leaders aren't the only ones who've been handed a mandate for change. Leaders of businesses and institutions everywhere confront a unique opportunity to transform the way the world works.

We have this chance for reasons no one wished. The crisis in our financial markets has jolted us awake to the realities and dangers of highly complex global systems. But in truth, the first decade of the 21st century has been a series of wake-up calls with a single subject: the reality of global integration.

Two years ago, I published an essay in Foreign Affairs that described the changing structure of the corporation, which I felt had been largely left out of the discussion on globalization. I described the emergence of a new kind of corporation—the globally integrated enterprise, which was replacing the multinational.

Today there is growing consensus that global integration is changing the corporate model and the nature of work itself. But we now see that the movement of information, work and capital across developed and developing nations—as profound as those are—constitute just one aspect of global integration.

In the last few years, our eyes have been opened to global climate change, and to the environmental and geopolitical issues surrounding energy. We have been made aware of global supply chains for food and medicine. And, of course, we entered the new century with the shock to our sense of security delivered by the attacks on 9/11.

This isn't just a metaphor. I mean infusing intelligence into the way the world literally works—the systems and processes that enable physical goods to be developed, manufactured, bought and sold... services to be delivered... everything from people and money to oil, water and electrons to move... and billions of people to work and live.

What's making this possible?

With so much technology and networking abundantly available at such low cost, what wouldn't you enhance? What service wouldn't you provide a customer, citizen, student or patient? What wouldn't you connect? What information wouldn't you mine for insight?

The answer is, you or your competitor—another company, or another city or nation—will do all of that. You will do it because you can—the technology is available and affordable.

Consider:

Fortunately, we now can. We see this in how companies and institutions are rethinking their systems and applying technology in new ways.

Stockholm's smart traffic system has resulted in 20 percent less traffic, a 12 percent drop in emissions and a reported 40,000 additional daily users of public transport. Smart traffic systems are strengthening the competitive positions of cities from London to Brisbane to Singapore—with many more being planned. Intelligent oil field technologies can increase both pump performance and well productivity—in a business where only 20-30 percent of available reserves are currently extracted. Smart food systems—such as one now running in the Nordics—can use RFID technology to trace meat and poultry from the farm through the supply chain to supermarket shelves. Smart healthcare can lower the cost of therapy by as much as 90 percent—as ActiveCare Network is doing for more than 2 million patients in 38 states, whom it monitors for the proper delivery of their injections and vaccines. There are many other examples I could cite. Smart systems are transforming energy grids, supply chains and water management. They are ensuring the authenticity of pharmaceuticals and the security of currency exchanges. And they are changing everything from organisations' business models to how they enable their employees to collaborate and innovate.

And remember, the opportunity to become smarter applies not just to large enterprises, but to smaller and mid-sized companies—the engines of economic growth everywhere. When we think about systems like supply chains, healthcare delivery and food systems, we're really talking about the interactions of hundreds, even thousands of companies, most of them small.

This opportunity also applies beyond business. Smart infrastructure is becoming the basis of competition between nations, regions and cities.

In a globally integrated economy, investment and work flow not only to the places in the world that offer cost advantages, skills and expertise. It is flowing to countries, regions and cities that offer smart infrastructure—everything from efficient transportation systems, modern airports and secure trade lanes... to reliable energy grids, transparent and trusted markets, and enhanced quality of life.

Certainly, as you travel the world, you see countries everywhere leapfrogging—not only to the latest technology and to digital infrastructures, but to the most modern business designs, processes and models. Ultimately, this is about competitiveness in a globally integrated economy.

The importance of this moment, I believe, is that the key precondition for real change now exists: People want it. But this moment will not last forever.

Well, today, from the boardroom to the kitchen table, people everywhere are ready, eager for a new way of doing things.

That's why a period of discontinuity is, for those with courage and vision, a period of opportunity. Over the next couple of years, there will be winners, and there will be losers. And though it may not be easy to see now, I believe we will see new leaders emerge who win not by surviving the storm, but by changing the game.

To do that, they will practice forms of leadership that are very different from the models of the past.

Think about the way the world today actually works: Very few of our systems are the responsibility of a single entity or decision-maker. So leaders will need to hone their collaboration skills, because we will need leadership that pulls across systems. We will need to bring together stakeholders and experts from across business, government and academia, and all of them will need to move outside their traditional comfort zones. This is something on which the Council on Foreign Relations has been showing the way for many years.

There is much serious work ahead of us, as leaders and as citizens. Together, we have to consciously infuse intelligence into our decision-making and management systems... not just infuse our processes with more speed and capacity.

But I think one thing is clear: The world will continue to become smaller, flatter... and smarter. We are moving into the age of the globally integrated and intelligent economy, society and planet. The question is, what will we do with that?

The world now beckoning us is one of enormous promise. And I believe it is one that we can build—if we open our minds and let ourselves think about all that a smarter planet could be.

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